A 25-year review of P&C premiums, distribution, MGAs, and employment reveals an industry that grew dramatically — net premiums tripled — while changing in unexpected ways. That sets up a next decade in which AI accelerates growth more than it disrupts
Key Takeaways
- Massive Premium Growth: The P&C industry has shown incredible resilience, with net written premiums more than tripling to nearly $1 trillion over the last 25 years, outpacing inflation.
- Resilience of Independent Agents: Despite early predictions that the internet would eliminate the middleman, independent agencies have thrived, while captive/exclusive agencies have significantly declined.
- The MGA Boom: Managing General Agents (MGAs) have experienced explosive growth, doubling their market share to account for roughly 13% ($130B) of total industry premiums.
- AI as an Augmenter: Artificial intelligence will drive future growth by improving efficiency and risk selection, freeing up insurance professionals to focus on human-centric skills like empathy, judgment, and relationship-building.
A look back at the last 25 years of the U.S. property/casualty industry reveals remarkable growth, as premium volume more than tripled, outpacing inflation by a wide margin while tracking with GDP growth.
During this period, there have been some portions of the industry that have undergone significant structural change; others have remained relatively stable. Some of the changes have been quite dramatic; others likely surprised industry watchers.
Together, they set the stage for the industry’s next wave of growth.
To illuminate the shifts I see coming for the industry, I’ll explore how artificial intelligence will affect industry professions like underwriters and adjusters, if disintermediation will accelerate and eliminate the need for agents, and if increased CATs and new risks will result in failing profitability.
Growth and financial results
Total net written premiums across all lines climbed from roughly $305 billion to just shy of $1 trillion by 2025, according to the Insurance Information Institute. This is approximately 3.2x growth during a time when inflation increased by about 1.9x, and nominal GDP increased 3.0x, indicating a vibrant, healthy industry.
In 2000, the industry’s net income was about $20B, going through the typical cycles before reaching a peak net income of $93B in 2024. Even during this era of increased frequency and severity of major catastrophes, the industry remains financially strong and resilient.
In a way, these results are not surprising since they are consistent with the history of the industry — always adapting, always able to weather difficult times, always positioning to fulfill customer commitments in the future. The more dramatic and interesting results of this 25-year review lie with the distribution channel, MGAs, and the employee picture.
Shifts in distribution
The independent agency channel has thrived, even as the world has become more digital and mobile. The number of IAs in the US remains around 40,000, similar to 2000.
By 2000, the rise in e-commerce fueled widespread talk of disintermediation in insurance.
The expectation was that direct digital distribution would spell the end of the agent, that consumers and businesses would eliminate the middleman and go straight to the insurance carrier for coverage.
In the past 25 years, while the internet has certainly had a big impact on P&C insurance distribution, the role of the independent agent has remained just as strong as ever.
Although the overall percentage of premiums originating from the agency channel has declined slightly from 87% to 82% over that period, the makeup of the channel has changed.
Captive/exclusive agencies have declined significantly, from 55,000 agencies in 2000 to approximately 35,000 today. At the same time, the number of independent agencies has remained relatively constant at around 40,000, while there has been a shift to much larger agencies and brokers (the top 5 now account for almost 20% of US premiums).
One interesting point is that for commercial lines, 87% of all US premium comes from the independent agency (IA) channel, which is up from 82% a decade ago. Thus, while M&A activity has been frenetic at times, new entrants continue to keep the total number of IAs about the same, as the market has shifted away from captives and toward independents. And though some personal lines and small commercial business are now transacted directly with the carrier, the predicted disintermediation has not really occurred.
Captive exclusive agents have declined from 55K to 35K, with business shifting more towards IAs than direct digital distribution.
MGA boom
One notable phenomenon that must be addressed is the rise of MGAs as a major factor in distribution, especially for commercial and specialty lines.
MGAs have long held a role in the P&C landscape, acting as leaders in innovation and finding new ways to cover risks and reach new customer segments. The past 10–15 years have seen an explosive increase in the number and variety of MGAs and in the premium flowing through them.
In 2000, around $20B of the $305B in industry premium came from MGAs (approx. 6.5%). By 2025, MGA premium had grown to $130B or approximately 13% of total premiums. This has been driven by the expansion of the E&S market, program business, and new business models such as embedded, parametric, and on-demand insurance.
MGA premiums increased more than 6x since 2000, now accounting for 13% of premiums in 2025, up from 6.5%.
Professional demographics
Over the past quarter-century, insurance employment has generally increased — but not in concert with the 3x growth of the industry.
While exact P&C employment figures are difficult to obtain, estimates put the number at about 700,000 in 2000, growing to approximately 900,000 in 2025 (excluding agencies). This includes increases in the number of underwriters, claims adjusters, and other key roles. Agency employment grew a bit faster, rising from about 800,000 in 2000 to 1.4M in 2025.
Tech-based automation has dramatically improved productivity, yet the number of agents, underwriters, and adjusters continue to increase.
Though employment growth has not been in parallel with the industry’s progress, the increase is still significant in an era when technology and automation have enabled notable productivity gains and provide customers with more direct access to carriers.
Predictions for the next decade
The premium growth of the last 25 years was driven by forces that are unlikely to reverse: rising property values, increasing catastrophe exposure, vehicle cost inflation, and a growing economy generating more insurable risks.
Whatever AI’s effect on underwriting workflows or claims handling turns out to be, it isn’t going to shrink the total amount of insurable risk in the economy; if anything, new categories of risk (cyber, AI liability) are adding to the pool.
In addition, many exposures in the world that have not previously been covered by insurance now present new growth opportunities for the industry. Technology has made it profitable to insure smaller and more unique risks, while also creating new ways to reach specific customer segments.
Thus, my prediction is that the industry will continue to grow at least as fast as GDP and much faster than inflation.
The bigger question is how AI will affect jobs and industry roles. Many industries face dire predictions of job loss. However, for property/casualty insurance in the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects only a 3-4% decrease in employment over the next decade. This will also occur during a huge retirement wave while the number of individuals entering the workforce is expected to shrink. Therefore, one can draw the conclusion that AI will not result in major industry job loss but rather will help to close the talent gap the industry faces.
On the distribution channel side, there are once again predictions of the demise of the agent. However, my view is that the number of agencies will be about the same in 2035 as today, although there will continue to be gradual declines in the percent of business emanating from the agent/broker world. Some are also predicting that the number and influence of MGAs will decline as primary carriers pull non-standard business back into their realm.
I do not believe this will occur due to the increasing complexity of the risk landscape and ongoing innovations in risk transfer and insurance mechanisms. In fact, I predict the premium handled by MGAs will likely double in the next decade, continuing the market trend since 2000.
Optimism for the future of P&C
Overall, there are many reasons to be optimistic about the future of the P&C industry. Even as the world becomes riskier, there are more ways to hedge against that risk, even in an environment of increasing CATs. The industry will remain healthy and resilient and will continue to grow.
AI will accelerate that growth by playing a major role in improving efficiency, enhancing risk selection and pricing, and driving superior decision-making. AI will also change industry roles and create new ones, enabling professionals to focus on human strengths of empathy, judgment, relationships, and experience.
The industry is poised to be very different ten years from now due to technology and a changing world. But in many ways, the foundational structure and strengths of the industry of protecting individuals and businesses will remain as strong as they’ve always been.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why has the P&C insurance industry grown so much over the past 25 years?
A: The industry has experienced remarkable growth, with total net written premiums more than tripling from roughly $305 billion in 2000 to nearly $1 trillion by 2025. This growth has outpaced inflation and tracked closely with GDP increases. The expansion has been driven by a vibrant market, the explosive rise of Managing General Agents (MGAs), and the industry’s historical ability to adapt and fulfill customer commitments.
Q: Why have many of the largest P&C insurance carriers remained industry leaders?
A: While the market has undergone significant structural changes, leading organizations have maintained their positions by remaining financially strong and resilient. The industry has a proven history of adapting to new risks, weathering difficult economic cycles, and continuously positioning itself to meet future customer needs, even during eras of increased catastrophe (CAT) frequency.
Q: What factors have driven changes in the top P&C insurance players since 2000?
A: A major driver of change has been frenetic Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity, which has significantly reshaped the market. While the total number of independent agencies has remained stable, there has been a massive shift toward larger organizations—today, the top 5 agencies and brokers account for almost 20% of all US premiums. Additionally, the boom in the E&S market and new business models (like embedded and parametric insurance) have shifted more premium share toward MGAs.
Q: Will AI replace insurance underwriters or augment their role?
A: AI is expected to augment industry professionals rather than replace them. By taking on tasks related to improving efficiency, enhancing risk selection, and driving data-backed decision-making, AI will free up underwriters and adjusters. This shift will enable professionals to focus heavily on uniquely human strengths, such as empathy, judgment, relationship-building, and complex experience.
Q: What does the next decade look like for the P&C insurance industry?
A: The outlook is highly optimistic. Even as the world becomes riskier and catastrophes increase, the industry will continue to find new ways to hedge against risk. Technology and AI will accelerate growth and create new roles. While the industry will look very different in ten years, its foundational structure and core mission—protecting individuals and businesses—will remain as strong as ever.
Sources:
- McKinsey & Company. (2013). Agents of the future: The evolution of property and casualty insurance distribution.
- Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of America. (2010). 2010 Property-Casualty Insurance Market Report.
- Insurance Information Institute. (2000). P/C and L/H Insurance Net Premiums Written Archived Tables.
- S&P Global. (2025). In industry first, US P&C insurers exceed $1 trillion in direct annual premiums.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2001). Occupational employment and wages, 2000 (BLS Bulletin 2545).
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2024). Insurance underwriters. Occupational Outlook Handbook.
- Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of America. (2024). 2024 Study Agency Universe Summary.
- Robert P. Hartwig. (2026). What’s the Fix for 2026? The Year Ahead for Insurers and the Economy.
- Conning. (2025). Managing general agents: U.S. marketplace trends and performance, 2025 Industry report.
- AM Best. (2024). U.S. delegated underwriting authority enterprises: Market segment report.
